The Black Swan：The Impact of the Highly Improbable

作者: Nassim Nicholas Taleb （纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布）著

出版社: Penguin

出版时间: 2008-02

版次: 1

ISBN: 9780141034591

定价: 112.80

装帧: 平装

开本: 大32开

纸张: 胶版纸

页数: 480页

正文语种: 英语

分类: 外文古旧书>英文书>小说

164人买过

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前，欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的，“黑天鹅”曾经是他们言谈与写作中的惯用语，用来指不可能存在的事物，但这个不可动摇的信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。
黑天鹅的存在寓示着不可预测的重大稀有事件，它在意料之外，却又改变一切，但人们总是对它视而不见，并习惯于以自己有限的生活经验和不堪一击的信念来解释这些意料之外的重大冲击，最终被现实击溃。
从次贷危机到东南亚海啸，从“9.11”事件到“泰坦尼克号”的沉没，黑天鹅存在于各个领域，无论金融市场、商业、经济还是个人生活，都逃不过它的控制。怎样才能真正认识这个社会的运行方式？怎样才能避免小概率事件带来的重大损失？怎样才能在不确定的世界中占得先机？升级版新增作者全新后记，深入分析不确定性带给我们的影响，教你以全新的视角理解现实世界，采取有效的策略防范未知风险，并把握黑天鹅带来的机会，从中受益。毋庸置疑，它将颠覆我们惯常的思维，让你重新掌握自己的命运。 Nassim Nicholas Taleb spends most of his time as a flaneur, meditating in cafes across the planet. A former trader, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in thirty-one languages.

　　纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布，当前最令人敬畏的风险管理理论学者。沃顿商学院企管硕士，巴黎大学博士，目前任纽约大学理工学院杰出教授。曾在纽约和伦敦交易多种衍生性金融商品，也曾在芝加哥当过营业厅的独立交易员。2001年2月正式成为衍生性金融商品交易战略名人堂的一员。他在“9·11”之前大量买入行权价格很低，看似毫无价值的认沽权证，用一种独特的方式做空美国股市，直到恐怖分子劫持飞机撞向纽约世贸大楼，由此获利丰厚，一举成名。此次美国次贷危机爆发之前，他又先知先觉重仓做空，从中获利几百万美元。他的上一本畅销书《黑天鹅的世界》（Fooled by Randomness）以30种语言出版。 Prologue

PART ONE UMBERTO ECO'S ANTILIBRARY,OF HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION

  Chapter 1 The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic

  Chapter 2 Yevgenia's Black Swan

  Chapter 3 The Speculator and the Prostitute

  Chapter 4 One Thousand and One Days,or How Not to be a Sucker

  Chapter 5 Confirmation Shmonfirmation!

  Chapter 6 The Narrative Fallacy

  Chapter 7 Living in the Antechamber of Hope

  Chapter 8 Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck:The Problem of Silent Evidence

  Chapter 9 The Ludic Fallacy,or The Uncertainty of the Nerd

PART TWO WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT

  Chapter 10 The Scandal of Prediction

  Chapter 11 How to Look for Bird Poop

  Chapter 12 Epistemocracy,a Dream

  Chapter 13 Appelles the Painter,of What Do You Do if you Cannot Predict?

PART THREE THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

  Chapter 14 From Mediocristan,and Back

  Chapter 15 The Bell Curve That Great Intellectual Fraud

  Chapter 16 The Aesthetics of Randomness

  Chapter 17 Locke's Mandmen,or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places

  Chapter 18 The Uncertainty of the Phony

  Chapter 19 Half and Half,or How to Get Even with the Black Swan

Epilogue:Yevgenia's White Swans

Acknowledgments

Glossary

Notes

Bibliography

Index
内容简介:
What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前，欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的，“黑天鹅”曾经是他们言谈与写作中的惯用语，用来指不可能存在的事物，但这个不可动摇的信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。
黑天鹅的存在寓示着不可预测的重大稀有事件，它在意料之外，却又改变一切，但人们总是对它视而不见，并习惯于以自己有限的生活经验和不堪一击的信念来解释这些意料之外的重大冲击，最终被现实击溃。
从次贷危机到东南亚海啸，从“9.11”事件到“泰坦尼克号”的沉没，黑天鹅存在于各个领域，无论金融市场、商业、经济还是个人生活，都逃不过它的控制。怎样才能真正认识这个社会的运行方式？怎样才能避免小概率事件带来的重大损失？怎样才能在不确定的世界中占得先机？升级版新增作者全新后记，深入分析不确定性带给我们的影响，教你以全新的视角理解现实世界，采取有效的策略防范未知风险，并把握黑天鹅带来的机会，从中受益。毋庸置疑，它将颠覆我们惯常的思维，让你重新掌握自己的命运。
作者简介:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb spends most of his time as a flaneur, meditating in cafes across the planet. A former trader, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in thirty-one languages.

　　纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布，当前最令人敬畏的风险管理理论学者。沃顿商学院企管硕士，巴黎大学博士，目前任纽约大学理工学院杰出教授。曾在纽约和伦敦交易多种衍生性金融商品，也曾在芝加哥当过营业厅的独立交易员。2001年2月正式成为衍生性金融商品交易战略名人堂的一员。他在“9·11”之前大量买入行权价格很低，看似毫无价值的认沽权证，用一种独特的方式做空美国股市，直到恐怖分子劫持飞机撞向纽约世贸大楼，由此获利丰厚，一举成名。此次美国次贷危机爆发之前，他又先知先觉重仓做空，从中获利几百万美元。他的上一本畅销书《黑天鹅的世界》（Fooled by Randomness）以30种语言出版。
目录:
Prologue

PART ONE UMBERTO ECO'S ANTILIBRARY,OF HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION

  Chapter 1 The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic

  Chapter 2 Yevgenia's Black Swan

  Chapter 3 The Speculator and the Prostitute

  Chapter 4 One Thousand and One Days,or How Not to be a Sucker

  Chapter 5 Confirmation Shmonfirmation!

  Chapter 6 The Narrative Fallacy

  Chapter 7 Living in the Antechamber of Hope

  Chapter 8 Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck:The Problem of Silent Evidence

  Chapter 9 The Ludic Fallacy,or The Uncertainty of the Nerd

PART TWO WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT

  Chapter 10 The Scandal of Prediction

  Chapter 11 How to Look for Bird Poop

  Chapter 12 Epistemocracy,a Dream

  Chapter 13 Appelles the Painter,of What Do You Do if you Cannot Predict?

PART THREE THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

  Chapter 14 From Mediocristan,and Back

  Chapter 15 The Bell Curve That Great Intellectual Fraud

  Chapter 16 The Aesthetics of Randomness

  Chapter 17 Locke's Mandmen,or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places

  Chapter 18 The Uncertainty of the Phony

  Chapter 19 Half and Half,or How to Get Even with the Black Swan

Epilogue:Yevgenia's White Swans

Acknowledgments

Glossary

Notes

Bibliography

Index