Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles (Wiley Finance)

Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles (Wiley Finance)
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作者: ,
出版社: Wiley
1994-02
版次: 1
ISBN: 9780471845447
定价: 605.10
装帧: 精装
开本: 其他
纸张: 其他
页数: 526页
正文语种: 英语
丛书: Wiley Finance
  • Gaintheknowledgeandskillsthatcanhelpyouexploitinstability.ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclesNobookcanhelpyouconstructfoolproofforecastingsystemsthatwillensureyou'llaccuratelypredicteconomicturningpointseverytime.ButwithNiemiraandKlein'sForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclesonhand,you'llbeabletosignificantlystrengthenyourabilitytomeasure,monitor,andforecastimportantfluctuations.Parthistory,itprovidesyouwithessentialbackgroundmaterialonthecharacteristicsandcausesofeconomicvolatility.Itoffersaccessiblecoverageoftheclassicalbusinesscycle,thefivebasictypesofeconomiccyclesasdeterminedbyleadingeconomists,andevolvingideasontheforcesdrivinginstability--rangingfromsimpleunicausaltheories,morecomplexKeynesiantheory,tonewclassicalmacroeconomics.Inaddition,itsconcisereviewofAmerica'seconomicpasthighlightsthelessonsthatcanbelearnedfromthevariouscyclesexperiencedsinceshortlybeforeWorldWarII.Parthandbook,ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclespresentsthefullspectrumofstatisticaltechniquesusedtomeasurecycles,trends,seasonalpatterns,andothervitalchanges,offeringyoustep-by-stepguidanceonapplyingaspecificmethodanddetailingitsusesandlimitations.Itgoesontoshowhowyoucanadaptparticulartechniquestoassess,track,andpredict:
    *Industrycycles--includinganobjective,tailor-madeforecastingtool
    *Regionalbusinesscycles--includingasurveyofregionalindicators
    *Internationalbusinesscycles--withaninternationalbusinesscyclechronology
    *Inflationcycles--plus"12little-knownfacts"aboutthiscomplexcycle
    *Financialcycles--coveringcredit,monetary,andinterestratecycles
    *Stockmarketcycles--withadviceonachievingmoredisciplinedtrading
    Basedonoutstandingscholarshipandyearsofpracticalexperience,ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCycleswillserveasaninvaluabletoolforpractitionerslikeyouwhosedecision-making--andprofitmargin--dependonaccuratelyassessingtoday'softenuncertaineconomicclimate."ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclesprovidesalivelysurveyofthemanywaysthatcyclicaleconomicactivityhasbeendissectedandanalyzed.Withthisbook,anastutereadermayevenbeabletoanticipatethenextcyclicalturn."--SamuelD.KahanChiefEconomistFujiSecurities,Inc."Thedefinitivebookonthemostimportantandenduringfeatureofanoftenmist-boundeconomiclandscape:thebusinesscycle."--AlfredL.Malabre,Jr.EconomicsEditorTheWallStreetJournal"NiemiraandKleincoverboththetheoryofeconomiccyclesandmethodsforforecastingthem.Theyprovideoneofthemostcomprehensiveandcurrentreviewsofacademicstudiesofeconomiccyclestobefoundanywhere."--AnthonyF.HerbstProfessorofFinanceTheUniversityofTexasatElPaso"Thisbooksucceedsasacomprehensive,balanced,andaccessibletreatmentoffluctuationsineconomicandfinancialactivity.Itshouldproveusefultoallthoseinindustryandfinancewhowishtounderstandandanalyzethetrendsandchangesinthemoderndynamiceconomy."--VictorZarnowitzProfessorEmeritusofEconomicsandFinanceUniversityofChicago sMICHAELP.NIEMIRAisVicePresidentandEconomistatMitsubishiBankinNewYork.Previously,heworkedasaneconomistatPaineWebber,ChemicalBank,andMerrillLynch.HeregularlywritesforCycles,themagazineoftheFoundationfortheStudyofCycles.HisearlierworkonindustrycyclesearnedhimtheNationalAssociationofBusinessEconomists'A.G.Abramsonawardforan"outstandingcontributiontotheprofessionalliteratureinthefieldofbusinesseconomics."PHILIPA.KLEINisProfessorofEconomicsatPennsylvaniaStateUniversityandisanAssociateEditoroftheInternationalJournalofForecasting.HehasconsultedonbusinesscycleindicatorsforOECD,theEEC,andtheWorldBank.HehaswrittenwidelyonbusinesscyclesandhasworkedformanyyearswithGeoffreyH.Moore.HeisaResearchAssociateattheCenterforInternationalBusinessCycleResearchatColumbiaUniversity.
  • 内容简介:
    Gaintheknowledgeandskillsthatcanhelpyouexploitinstability.ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclesNobookcanhelpyouconstructfoolproofforecastingsystemsthatwillensureyou'llaccuratelypredicteconomicturningpointseverytime.ButwithNiemiraandKlein'sForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclesonhand,you'llbeabletosignificantlystrengthenyourabilitytomeasure,monitor,andforecastimportantfluctuations.Parthistory,itprovidesyouwithessentialbackgroundmaterialonthecharacteristicsandcausesofeconomicvolatility.Itoffersaccessiblecoverageoftheclassicalbusinesscycle,thefivebasictypesofeconomiccyclesasdeterminedbyleadingeconomists,andevolvingideasontheforcesdrivinginstability--rangingfromsimpleunicausaltheories,morecomplexKeynesiantheory,tonewclassicalmacroeconomics.Inaddition,itsconcisereviewofAmerica'seconomicpasthighlightsthelessonsthatcanbelearnedfromthevariouscyclesexperiencedsinceshortlybeforeWorldWarII.Parthandbook,ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclespresentsthefullspectrumofstatisticaltechniquesusedtomeasurecycles,trends,seasonalpatterns,andothervitalchanges,offeringyoustep-by-stepguidanceonapplyingaspecificmethodanddetailingitsusesandlimitations.Itgoesontoshowhowyoucanadaptparticulartechniquestoassess,track,andpredict:
    *Industrycycles--includinganobjective,tailor-madeforecastingtool
    *Regionalbusinesscycles--includingasurveyofregionalindicators
    *Internationalbusinesscycles--withaninternationalbusinesscyclechronology
    *Inflationcycles--plus"12little-knownfacts"aboutthiscomplexcycle
    *Financialcycles--coveringcredit,monetary,andinterestratecycles
    *Stockmarketcycles--withadviceonachievingmoredisciplinedtrading
    Basedonoutstandingscholarshipandyearsofpracticalexperience,ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCycleswillserveasaninvaluabletoolforpractitionerslikeyouwhosedecision-making--andprofitmargin--dependonaccuratelyassessingtoday'softenuncertaineconomicclimate."ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCyclesprovidesalivelysurveyofthemanywaysthatcyclicaleconomicactivityhasbeendissectedandanalyzed.Withthisbook,anastutereadermayevenbeabletoanticipatethenextcyclicalturn."--SamuelD.KahanChiefEconomistFujiSecurities,Inc."Thedefinitivebookonthemostimportantandenduringfeatureofanoftenmist-boundeconomiclandscape:thebusinesscycle."--AlfredL.Malabre,Jr.EconomicsEditorTheWallStreetJournal"NiemiraandKleincoverboththetheoryofeconomiccyclesandmethodsforforecastingthem.Theyprovideoneofthemostcomprehensiveandcurrentreviewsofacademicstudiesofeconomiccyclestobefoundanywhere."--AnthonyF.HerbstProfessorofFinanceTheUniversityofTexasatElPaso"Thisbooksucceedsasacomprehensive,balanced,andaccessibletreatmentoffluctuationsineconomicandfinancialactivity.Itshouldproveusefultoallthoseinindustryandfinancewhowishtounderstandandanalyzethetrendsandchangesinthemoderndynamiceconomy."--VictorZarnowitzProfessorEmeritusofEconomicsandFinanceUniversityofChicago
  • 作者简介:
    sMICHAELP.NIEMIRAisVicePresidentandEconomistatMitsubishiBankinNewYork.Previously,heworkedasaneconomistatPaineWebber,ChemicalBank,andMerrillLynch.HeregularlywritesforCycles,themagazineoftheFoundationfortheStudyofCycles.HisearlierworkonindustrycyclesearnedhimtheNationalAssociationofBusinessEconomists'A.G.Abramsonawardforan"outstandingcontributiontotheprofessionalliteratureinthefieldofbusinesseconomics."PHILIPA.KLEINisProfessorofEconomicsatPennsylvaniaStateUniversityandisanAssociateEditoroftheInternationalJournalofForecasting.HehasconsultedonbusinesscycleindicatorsforOECD,theEEC,andtheWorldBank.HehaswrittenwidelyonbusinesscyclesandhasworkedformanyyearswithGeoffreyH.Moore.HeisaResearchAssociateattheCenterforInternationalBusinessCycleResearchatColumbiaUniversity.
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