决策的本质：解释古巴导弹危机

作者: [美] 格雷厄姆·阿利森（Graham T.Allison）著 , 菲利普·泽利科（Philip Zelikow）著

出版社: 北京大学出版社

出版时间: 2008-01

版次: 1

ISBN: 9787301132364

定价: 43.00

装帧: 平装

开本: 16开

纸张: 胶版纸

页数: 416页

字数: 596千字

正文语种: 英语

原版书名: Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis（2nd Edition）

丛书: 世界政治与国际关系原版影印丛书

分类: 政治

　　这是第二次世界大战后最有影响力的政治学著作之一。《决策的本质》原作以独特的视角审视了冷战时期的关键事件。此经典著作的第二版不仅仅是修订，更是重写：重新解释了古巴导弹危机前后的理论及事件；也融入了肯尼迪录音带及最近解密的苏联文件的信息。第二版提炼了原著中格雷厄姆·阿利森任美国助理国防部长及哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长时期的一些评论和观点。同时也有一位新的作者菲利普·泽利科参与了第二版的撰写，他著有十分畅销的评论著作《肯尼迪录音带》(TheKennedyTapes，HarvardUniversityPress，1997)。《决策的本质》(第二版)鲜活地展现了重压之下的决策过程，此书也是唯一一部尝试解决这一经久不衰的问题的著作：人们如何理解政府的举动? 　　格雷厄姆·阿利森（GrahamT.Allison），哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长、教授，曾在克林顿政府时期任助理国防部长。 Preface
Introduction
1　ModelI：TheRationalActor
ARigorousModelofAction
ARationalActorParadigm
TheClassicalModelIllustrated
ClassicalRealism.Neorealism(StructuralRealism).
InternationalInstitutionalism.Liberalism.Strategy，War，
andRationalChoice.
VariantsandUsesoftheClassicalModel
2TheCubanMissileCrisis：AFirstCut
WhyDidtheSovietUnionDecidetoPlaceOffensiveMissilesin
Cuba?
Hypothesis1：CubanDefense.Hypothesis2：ColdWarPolitics.
Hypothesis3：MissilePower.Hypothesis4：Berlin--Win，
Trade，orTrap.
WhyDidtheUnitedStatesRespondtotheMissileDeployment
withaBlockade?
AlternativeI：DoNothing.Alternative2：Diplomatic
Pressures.Alternative3：ASecretApproachtoCastro.
Alternative4：Invasion.Alternative5：AirStrike.
Alternative6：Blockade.
WhyDidtheSovietUnionWithdrawtheMissiles?
3　ModelII：OrganizationalBehavior
OrganizationalLogicandEfficiency
OrganizationalLogicandOrganizationalCulture
InteractiveComplexity
NASA：HeroandGoat
OrganizationalBehaviorParadigm
4TheCubanMissileCrisis：ASecondCut
DeploymentofSovietMissilesinCuba
TheSovietBuild-upinDetail.Organizational
Implementation.
ImpositionofaU.S.BlockadeofCuba
OrganizationalIntelligence.OrganizationalOptions.
OrganizationalImplementation.
TheWithdrawalofSovietMissilesfromCuba
5ModelIII：GovernmentalPolitics
TheGovernmentalPoliticsModelIllustrated__
1.SeparatedInstitutionsSharingPower.2.ThePowerto
Persuade.3.BargainingAccordingtotheProcesses.4.Power
EqualsImpactonOutcome.5.Intranationaland
InternationalRelations.
GroupProcessesandTheirEffectsonChoicesandAction
1.BetterDecisions.2.The"Agency"Problem：Principals，
Agents，andPlayers.3.Participants：WhoPlays?4.Decision
Rules.5.FramingIssuesandSettingAgendas.6.Groupthink.
7.Complexityof]ointAction.
AGovernmentalPoliticsParadigm
6TheCubanMissileCrisis：AThirdCut
TheImpositionofaBlockadebytheUnitedStates
ThePoliticsofDiscovery.ThePoliticsofChoice.
SovietWithdrawaloftheMissilesfromCuba
SovietsKillanAmericanU-2Pilot.ThePresidentandthe
Chairman.The"Deal"：ResolvingtheTurkishProblem.
The"Deal"：ResolvingtheCubanProblem.
7Conclusion
SummingUp：DifferencesinInterpretation
SummingUp：DifferentAnswersorDifferentQuestions?
WhereDoWeGofromHere?
Index
内容简介:
　　这是第二次世界大战后最有影响力的政治学著作之一。《决策的本质》原作以独特的视角审视了冷战时期的关键事件。此经典著作的第二版不仅仅是修订，更是重写：重新解释了古巴导弹危机前后的理论及事件；也融入了肯尼迪录音带及最近解密的苏联文件的信息。第二版提炼了原著中格雷厄姆·阿利森任美国助理国防部长及哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长时期的一些评论和观点。同时也有一位新的作者菲利普·泽利科参与了第二版的撰写，他著有十分畅销的评论著作《肯尼迪录音带》(TheKennedyTapes，HarvardUniversityPress，1997)。《决策的本质》(第二版)鲜活地展现了重压之下的决策过程，此书也是唯一一部尝试解决这一经久不衰的问题的著作：人们如何理解政府的举动?
作者简介:
　　格雷厄姆·阿利森（GrahamT.Allison），哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长、教授，曾在克林顿政府时期任助理国防部长。
目录:
Preface
Introduction
1　ModelI：TheRationalActor
ARigorousModelofAction
ARationalActorParadigm
TheClassicalModelIllustrated
ClassicalRealism.Neorealism(StructuralRealism).
InternationalInstitutionalism.Liberalism.Strategy，War，
andRationalChoice.
VariantsandUsesoftheClassicalModel
2TheCubanMissileCrisis：AFirstCut
WhyDidtheSovietUnionDecidetoPlaceOffensiveMissilesin
Cuba?
Hypothesis1：CubanDefense.Hypothesis2：ColdWarPolitics.
Hypothesis3：MissilePower.Hypothesis4：Berlin--Win，
Trade，orTrap.
WhyDidtheUnitedStatesRespondtotheMissileDeployment
withaBlockade?
AlternativeI：DoNothing.Alternative2：Diplomatic
Pressures.Alternative3：ASecretApproachtoCastro.
Alternative4：Invasion.Alternative5：AirStrike.
Alternative6：Blockade.
WhyDidtheSovietUnionWithdrawtheMissiles?
3　ModelII：OrganizationalBehavior
OrganizationalLogicandEfficiency
OrganizationalLogicandOrganizationalCulture
InteractiveComplexity
NASA：HeroandGoat
OrganizationalBehaviorParadigm
4TheCubanMissileCrisis：ASecondCut
DeploymentofSovietMissilesinCuba
TheSovietBuild-upinDetail.Organizational
Implementation.
ImpositionofaU.S.BlockadeofCuba
OrganizationalIntelligence.OrganizationalOptions.
OrganizationalImplementation.
TheWithdrawalofSovietMissilesfromCuba
5ModelIII：GovernmentalPolitics
TheGovernmentalPoliticsModelIllustrated__
1.SeparatedInstitutionsSharingPower.2.ThePowerto
Persuade.3.BargainingAccordingtotheProcesses.4.Power
EqualsImpactonOutcome.5.Intranationaland
InternationalRelations.
GroupProcessesandTheirEffectsonChoicesandAction
1.BetterDecisions.2.The"Agency"Problem：Principals，
Agents，andPlayers.3.Participants：WhoPlays?4.Decision
Rules.5.FramingIssuesandSettingAgendas.6.Groupthink.
7.Complexityof]ointAction.
AGovernmentalPoliticsParadigm
6TheCubanMissileCrisis：AThirdCut
TheImpositionofaBlockadebytheUnitedStates
ThePoliticsofDiscovery.ThePoliticsofChoice.
SovietWithdrawaloftheMissilesfromCuba
SovietsKillanAmericanU-2Pilot.ThePresidentandthe
Chairman.The"Deal"：ResolvingtheTurkishProblem.
The"Deal"：ResolvingtheCubanProblem.
7Conclusion
SummingUp：DifferencesinInterpretation
SummingUp：DifferentAnswersorDifferentQuestions?
WhereDoWeGofromHere?
Index