The Signal and the Noise：Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't

作者: Nate Silver 著

出版社: Penguin Books

出版时间: 2012-09

版次: 1

ISBN: 9781594204111

定价: 199.00

装帧: 精装

开本: 其他

纸张: 其他

页数: 534页

正文语种: 英语

分类: 外文古旧书>英文书>经济

11人买过

Everytimewechoosearoutetowork,decidewhethertogoonaseconddate,orsetasidemoneyforarainyday,wearemakingapredictionaboutthefuture.Yetfromtheglobalfinancialcrisisto9/11totheFukushimadisaster,weoftenfailtoforeseehugelysignificantevents.InTheSignalandtheNoise,theNewYorkTimes'politicalforecasterandstatisticsguruNateSilverexplorestheartofprediction,revealinghowwecanallbuildabettercrystalball.
Inhisquesttodistinguishthetruesignalfromauniverseofnoisydata,Silvervisitshundredsofexpertforecasters,infieldsrangingfromthestockmarkettothepokertable,fromearthquakestoterrorism.Whatliesbehindtheirsuccess?Andwhydosomanypredictionsstillfail?Byanalysingtherareprescientforecasts,andapplyingamorequantitativelenstoeverydaylife,Silverdistilstheessentiallessonsofprediction.
Weliveinanincreasinglydata-drivenworld,butitisharderthanevertodetectthetruepatternsamidthenoiseofinformation.Inthisdazzlinginsider'stouroftheworldofforecasting,Silverrevealshowwecanalldevelopbetterforesightinoureverydaylives. NateSilverisastatisticianandpoliticalforecasteratTheNewYorkTimeswhobecameanationalsensationintheUnitedStateswhenhispredictionsduringthe2008presidentialelectiontrumpedmostmainstreampolls.HeisacontributortoTheNewYorkTimesMagazineandhasappearedasacommentatoronCNNandMSNBC.HehasspokenatTEDandSXSW,andwasnamedoneofTIME's100MostInfluentialPeopleintheworld. Introduction 1
1 A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction 19
2 Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit? 47
3 All I Care About is W's and L's 74
4 For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green 108
5 Desperately Seeking Signal 142
6 How to Drown in Three Feet of Water 176
7 Role Models 204
8 Less and Less and Less Wrong 232
9 Rage Against the Machines 262
10 The Poker Bubble 294
11 If You Can't Beat'em … 329
12 A Climate of Healthy Skepticism 370
13 What You Don't Know Can Hurt You 412
Conclusion 446
Acknowledgments 455
Notes 459
Index 515
内容简介:
Everytimewechoosearoutetowork,decidewhethertogoonaseconddate,orsetasidemoneyforarainyday,wearemakingapredictionaboutthefuture.Yetfromtheglobalfinancialcrisisto9/11totheFukushimadisaster,weoftenfailtoforeseehugelysignificantevents.InTheSignalandtheNoise,theNewYorkTimes'politicalforecasterandstatisticsguruNateSilverexplorestheartofprediction,revealinghowwecanallbuildabettercrystalball.
Inhisquesttodistinguishthetruesignalfromauniverseofnoisydata,Silvervisitshundredsofexpertforecasters,infieldsrangingfromthestockmarkettothepokertable,fromearthquakestoterrorism.Whatliesbehindtheirsuccess?Andwhydosomanypredictionsstillfail?Byanalysingtherareprescientforecasts,andapplyingamorequantitativelenstoeverydaylife,Silverdistilstheessentiallessonsofprediction.
Weliveinanincreasinglydata-drivenworld,butitisharderthanevertodetectthetruepatternsamidthenoiseofinformation.Inthisdazzlinginsider'stouroftheworldofforecasting,Silverrevealshowwecanalldevelopbetterforesightinoureverydaylives.
作者简介:
NateSilverisastatisticianandpoliticalforecasteratTheNewYorkTimeswhobecameanationalsensationintheUnitedStateswhenhispredictionsduringthe2008presidentialelectiontrumpedmostmainstreampolls.HeisacontributortoTheNewYorkTimesMagazineandhasappearedasacommentatoronCNNandMSNBC.HehasspokenatTEDandSXSW,andwasnamedoneofTIME's100MostInfluentialPeopleintheworld.
目录:
Introduction 1
1 A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction 19
2 Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit? 47
3 All I Care About is W's and L's 74
4 For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green 108
5 Desperately Seeking Signal 142
6 How to Drown in Three Feet of Water 176
7 Role Models 204
8 Less and Less and Less Wrong 232
9 Rage Against the Machines 262
10 The Poker Bubble 294
11 If You Can't Beat'em … 329
12 A Climate of Healthy Skepticism 370
13 What You Don't Know Can Hurt You 412
Conclusion 446
Acknowledgments 455
Notes 459
Index 515