The Black Swan:Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

The Black Swan
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作者: (纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布)
出版社: Random House
2010-05
版次: 1
ISBN: 9780812973815
定价: 134.40
装帧: 平装
开本: 32开
纸张: 胶版纸
页数: 480页
正文语种: 英语
丛书: Incerto
  • Ablackswanisanevent,positiveornegative,thatisdeemedimprobableyetcausesmassiveconsequences.Inthisgroundbreakingandpropheticbook,TalebshowsinaplayfulwaythatBlackSwaneventsexplainalmosteverythingaboutourworld,andyetwe—especiallytheexperts—areblindtothem.Inthissecondedition,Talebhasaddedanewessay,OnRobustnessandFragility,whichofferstoolstonavigateandexploitaBlackSwanworld. NassimNicholasTalebhasdevotedhislifetoimmersinghimselfinproblemsofluck,randomness,humanerror,probability,andthephilosophyofknowledge.Hemanagedtotransformhisinterestsintothreesuccessfulcareers,asamanofletters,businessman-trader-riskmanager,anduniversityprofessor.Althoughhespendsmostofhistimeasaflaneur,meditatingincafésacrosstheplanet,heiscurrentlyDistinguishedProfessoratNewYorkUniversity'sPolytechnicInstituteandPrincipalofUniversa.HisbooksFooledbyRandomnessandTheBlackSwanhavebeenpublishedin31languages.Heiswidelyrecognizedastheforemostthinkeronprobabilityanduncertainty.TaleblivesmostlyinNewYork. Prologue

    PART ONE:UMBERTO ECO'ANTILIBRARY,OR HOW  WE VALIDATION

    PART TOW:WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT

    PART THREE:THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

    PART FOUR:THE END

    POSTSCRIPT ESAY:ON ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY,DEEPER PHILOSOPHLCALAND EMPLRICAL REFLECTILONS
  • 内容简介:
    Ablackswanisanevent,positiveornegative,thatisdeemedimprobableyetcausesmassiveconsequences.Inthisgroundbreakingandpropheticbook,TalebshowsinaplayfulwaythatBlackSwaneventsexplainalmosteverythingaboutourworld,andyetwe—especiallytheexperts—areblindtothem.Inthissecondedition,Talebhasaddedanewessay,OnRobustnessandFragility,whichofferstoolstonavigateandexploitaBlackSwanworld.
  • 作者简介:
    NassimNicholasTalebhasdevotedhislifetoimmersinghimselfinproblemsofluck,randomness,humanerror,probability,andthephilosophyofknowledge.Hemanagedtotransformhisinterestsintothreesuccessfulcareers,asamanofletters,businessman-trader-riskmanager,anduniversityprofessor.Althoughhespendsmostofhistimeasaflaneur,meditatingincafésacrosstheplanet,heiscurrentlyDistinguishedProfessoratNewYorkUniversity'sPolytechnicInstituteandPrincipalofUniversa.HisbooksFooledbyRandomnessandTheBlackSwanhavebeenpublishedin31languages.Heiswidelyrecognizedastheforemostthinkeronprobabilityanduncertainty.TaleblivesmostlyinNewYork.
  • 目录:
    Prologue

    PART ONE:UMBERTO ECO'ANTILIBRARY,OR HOW  WE VALIDATION

    PART TOW:WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT

    PART THREE:THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

    PART FOUR:THE END

    POSTSCRIPT ESAY:ON ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY,DEEPER PHILOSOPHLCALAND EMPLRICAL REFLECTILONS
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