第六感：强化组织学习的情景训练法 THE SIXTH SENSE - ACCELERATING ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING WITH SCENARIOS

作者: Kees van der Heijden 著

出版社: John Wiley & Sons

出版时间: 2002-12

版次: 1

ISBN: 9780470844915

定价: 406.35

装帧: 精装

开本: 其他

纸张: 胶版纸

页数: 307页

分类: 外文古旧书>英文书>管理

This book is about organizational survival: the reasons why organizations do not always survive, and what can be done about it.


   Survival means creating value for stakeholders, and the survival problem starts with uncertainty, change and the need for organizations to adapt to shifting needs and market conditions. The key question is 'Why are organizations slow to change and adapt?'


  Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking and behavioural flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. In this book, we explain what these flaws are and how the scenario approach helps senior managers and organizations to overcome them. Our approach is based on reasoning, research, real world observations - and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking, combining the most effective elements of the many scenario approaches that have been tried over time.


   This book explains:


   Why scenario thinking is increasingly important: how it has developed as an approach that can help build successful strategies and organizations.


   How scenarios are valuable in overcoming an obstacle or problem - current or potential - by enabling innovation and creative thinking 'outside the box'.


   How scenario thinking can be used to resolve organizational flaws by enhancing the strategic conversation.


   How to understand the scenario approach in the context of effective organizational learning and development.


   How to ensure that scenario thinking is included in a wider strategic and organizational learning framework, essential for organizational survival.


   Outlining the benefits and techniques of scenario thinking The Sixth Sense shows that scenario thinking is purposeful and effective in driving strategy and organizational development towards managerial and organizational success. Kees van der Heijden (Scotland) is Director of the Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies, the Graduate School of Business at the University of Strathclyde, U.K. ABOUT THE AUTHORS

INTRODUCTION

  The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future

    Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future

    The Significance of Scenario Thinking

    Developing the Sixth Sense-the Approach to Scenario Thinking

   How this Book is Organized

1.PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE

  Understanding Organizational Success

    Success and Failure are Inevitable

    Understanding success by understanding failure

    Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail

  Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems

    Sustaining Competitive Advantage-the Battle of Canon and Xerox

    Yahoo!-Competing in Fast-moving Markets

    Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick-the Story of Lego

  Success Stories

    Providing Customer Value-the Rise of Tetra Pak

    Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth-Nokia Answers the Call

  Barriers to Strategic Success

    Lessons Learned

    Creating Value-The Difference Between Success and Failure

    Value is Created in a Domain of Scarcity

  Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning

2.HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE

  Understanding Management Thinking

    Routines in Management Thinking

    Over-reliance on Routines: Success Formulas and Managerial Thinking

  Biases in thinking

    The Relevance of Framing Flaws

    How a Failed Product Launch Actually Boosted Sales: the Sparkle of New Coke

    Confirmation Bias

    Hindsight Bias

    The Problem of Overconfidence

  The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting

  Decision Avoidance

    Escalation of Commitment

    Bolstering, Procrastination and Buck-Passing

    Example of a Management Team Facing a Decision Dilemma

    Thinking Flaws: A Synthesis

  Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning

    A Scenario is not a Forecast of the Future

    Scenarios Focus on Key Uncertainties and Certainties About the Future

    Scenarios Help Identify Information to Anticipate How the Future will Unfold

    Typical Outcomes of the Scenario Planning Process

  Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning

    Summary Checklist-the Limits to Managerial Thinking

3.HOW ORGANIZATIONS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE

  Flaws in Organizational Thinking

    Communication Difficulties

    Group-think in Organizations

    Fragmentation in Organizations

  Limitations Imposed by Identity

    Balancing Change and Constancy

    Overcoming the Limits of Organizational Identity: the Example of IBM

  Organizational Lock-in

    Understanding Organizational Lock-in

    The Consequences of Organizational Feedback Loops and Lock-in

    ……

4.THE IMPACT OF CULTURE AND CULTURAL ASSUMPTIONS ON STRATEGY

5.SHAPING THE FUTURE:THE EMERGENCE OF MODERN SCENARIO TECHNIQUES

6.DEVELOPING THE SKILLS FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL AND SUCCESS:PRINCIPLES OF THE SCENARIO PROCESS

7.SCENARIO PLANNING IN THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT

8.SCENARIO PLANNING:TAKING CHARGE OF THE FUTURE

SUMMARY

GLOSSARY

REFERENCES

INDEX
内容简介:
This book is about organizational survival: the reasons why organizations do not always survive, and what can be done about it.


   Survival means creating value for stakeholders, and the survival problem starts with uncertainty, change and the need for organizations to adapt to shifting needs and market conditions. The key question is 'Why are organizations slow to change and adapt?'


  Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking and behavioural flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. In this book, we explain what these flaws are and how the scenario approach helps senior managers and organizations to overcome them. Our approach is based on reasoning, research, real world observations - and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking, combining the most effective elements of the many scenario approaches that have been tried over time.


   This book explains:


   Why scenario thinking is increasingly important: how it has developed as an approach that can help build successful strategies and organizations.


   How scenarios are valuable in overcoming an obstacle or problem - current or potential - by enabling innovation and creative thinking 'outside the box'.


   How scenario thinking can be used to resolve organizational flaws by enhancing the strategic conversation.


   How to understand the scenario approach in the context of effective organizational learning and development.


   How to ensure that scenario thinking is included in a wider strategic and organizational learning framework, essential for organizational survival.


   Outlining the benefits and techniques of scenario thinking The Sixth Sense shows that scenario thinking is purposeful and effective in driving strategy and organizational development towards managerial and organizational success.
作者简介:
Kees van der Heijden (Scotland) is Director of the Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies, the Graduate School of Business at the University of Strathclyde, U.K.
目录:
ABOUT THE AUTHORS

INTRODUCTION

  The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future

    Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future

    The Significance of Scenario Thinking

    Developing the Sixth Sense-the Approach to Scenario Thinking

   How this Book is Organized

1.PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE

  Understanding Organizational Success

    Success and Failure are Inevitable

    Understanding success by understanding failure

    Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail

  Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems

    Sustaining Competitive Advantage-the Battle of Canon and Xerox

    Yahoo!-Competing in Fast-moving Markets

    Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick-the Story of Lego

  Success Stories

    Providing Customer Value-the Rise of Tetra Pak

    Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth-Nokia Answers the Call

  Barriers to Strategic Success

    Lessons Learned

    Creating Value-The Difference Between Success and Failure

    Value is Created in a Domain of Scarcity

  Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning

2.HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE

  Understanding Management Thinking

    Routines in Management Thinking

    Over-reliance on Routines: Success Formulas and Managerial Thinking

  Biases in thinking

    The Relevance of Framing Flaws

    How a Failed Product Launch Actually Boosted Sales: the Sparkle of New Coke

    Confirmation Bias

    Hindsight Bias

    The Problem of Overconfidence

  The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting

  Decision Avoidance

    Escalation of Commitment

    Bolstering, Procrastination and Buck-Passing

    Example of a Management Team Facing a Decision Dilemma

    Thinking Flaws: A Synthesis

  Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning

    A Scenario is not a Forecast of the Future

    Scenarios Focus on Key Uncertainties and Certainties About the Future

    Scenarios Help Identify Information to Anticipate How the Future will Unfold

    Typical Outcomes of the Scenario Planning Process

  Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning

    Summary Checklist-the Limits to Managerial Thinking

3.HOW ORGANIZATIONS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE

  Flaws in Organizational Thinking

    Communication Difficulties

    Group-think in Organizations

    Fragmentation in Organizations

  Limitations Imposed by Identity

    Balancing Change and Constancy

    Overcoming the Limits of Organizational Identity: the Example of IBM

  Organizational Lock-in

    Understanding Organizational Lock-in

    The Consequences of Organizational Feedback Loops and Lock-in

    ……

4.THE IMPACT OF CULTURE AND CULTURAL ASSUMPTIONS ON STRATEGY

5.SHAPING THE FUTURE:THE EMERGENCE OF MODERN SCENARIO TECHNIQUES

6.DEVELOPING THE SKILLS FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL AND SUCCESS:PRINCIPLES OF THE SCENARIO PROCESS

7.SCENARIO PLANNING IN THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT

8.SCENARIO PLANNING:TAKING CHARGE OF THE FUTURE

SUMMARY

GLOSSARY

REFERENCES

INDEX