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国际经济学：理论与政策（国际金融）（全球版第10版）

作者: [美] 保罗·R. 克鲁格曼 , 莫里斯·奥伯斯法尔德（Maurice Obstfeld） , 马克·J. 梅利兹（Marc J. Melitz）

出版社: 清华大学出版社

出版时间: 2021-03

版次: 1

ISBN: 9787302572558

定价: 69.00

装帧: 其他

开本: 16开

纸张: 胶版纸

分类: 教材教辅考试>教材>大学教材>经济

7 张插图图片

87人买过

《国际经济学：理论与政策》的三位作者都是著名的经济学家。本书是美国许多知名大学的*教材，它深刻洞悉了国际贸易和国际金融领域的*变化和争议，在内容安排上既包含国际经济学的*进展，又重视长期以来作为学科核心的传统理论与见解。本书配有大量的案例、专栏和图表，注重理论在实践中的应用。作者以其多年来对国际经济学的研究和实践经验，系统介绍了国际贸易理论和政策、国际收支平衡、汇率决定和国际宏观经济政策的*研究成果，是一本不可多得的国际经济学教材。普林斯顿大学教授，2008年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者，目前还担任许多国家和地区的经济政策咨询顾问。他的主要研究领域包括国际贸易、国际金融、货币危机与汇率变化理论，被誉为当今世界上最令人瞩目的贸易理论家之一。 Preface xv

Introduction 1

What Is International Economics About? 3

The Gains from Trade 4

The Pattern of Trade 5

How Much Trade? 5

Balance of Payments 6

Exchange Rate Determination 6

International Policy Coordination 7

The International Capital Market 8

International Economics: Trade and Money 8

Part  1 Exchange rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics 11

National Income Accounting and the Balance

of Payments 11

The National Income Accounts 13

National Product and National Income 14

Capital Depreciation and International Transfers 15

Gross Domestic Product 15

National Income Accounting for an Open Economy 16

Consumption 16

Investment 16

Government Purchases 17

The National Income Identity for an Open Economy 17

An Imaginary Open Economy 18

The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness 18

Saving and the Current Account 21

Private and Government Saving 22

box: The Mystery of the Missing Deficit 23

The Balance of Payments Accounts 24

Examples of Paired Transactions 25

The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity 27

The Current Account, Once Again 27

The Capital Account 28

The Financial Account 29

Net Errors and Omissions 30

Official Reserve Transactions 30

case study: The Assets and Liabilities of the World’s Biggest Debtor 32

Summary 35

Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market:

An Asset Approach 40

Exchange Rates and International Transactions 41

Domestic and Foreign Prices 42

Exchange Rates and Relative Prices 43

The Foreign Exchange Market 44

The Actors 44

box: Exchange Rates, Auto Prices, and Currency Wars 45

Characteristics of the Market 46

Spot Rates and Forward Rates 48

Foreign Exchange Swaps 49

Futures and Options 49

The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets 50

Assets and Asset Returns 50

box: Nondeliverable Forward Exchange Trading in Asia 51

Risk and Liquidity 53

Interest Rates 54

Exchange Rates and Asset Returns 55

A Simple Rule 56

Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market 58

Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market 59

Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition 59

How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect

Expected Returns 60

The Equilibrium Exchange Rate 61

Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium 64

The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate 64

The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate 65

case study: What Explains the Carry Trade? 66

Summary 68

Appendix: Forward Exchange Rates and Covered Interest Parity 74

Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates 77

Money Defined: A Brief Review 78

Money as a Medium of Exchange 78

Money as a Unit of Account 78

Money as a Store of Value 79

What Is Money? 79

How the Money Supply Is Determined 79

The Demand for Money by Individuals 80

Expected Return 80

Risk 81

Liquidity 81

Aggregate Money Demand 81

The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money Supply

and Demand 83

Equilibrium in the Money Market 83

Interest Rates and the Money Supply 85

Output and the Interest Rate 86

The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run 87

Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate 87

U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate 89

Europe’s Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate 90

Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run 92

Money and Money Prices 92

The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes 93

Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels 94

Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run 95

Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics 96

Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility 96

box: Money Supply Growth and Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe 98

Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate 99

Exchange Rate Overshooting 101

case study: Can Higher Inflation Lead to Currency Appreciation? The Implications

of Inflation Targeting 103

Summary 106

Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run 111

The Law of One Price 112

Purchasing Power Parity 113

The Relationship between PPP and the Law of One Price 113

Absolute PPP and Relative PPP 114

A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP 115

The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach 115

Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPP 117

The Fisher Effect 118

Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price 121

Explaining the Problems with PPP 123

Trade Barriers and Nontradables 123

Departures from Free Competition 124

Differences in Consumption Patterns and Price Level Measurement 125

box: Some Meaty Evidence on the Law of One Price 125

PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run 128

case study: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries 129

Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange

Rates 130

The Real Exchange Rate 131

Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate 133

box: Sticky Prices and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Scandinavian

Duty-Free Shops 133

Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium 136

International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate 138

Real Interest Parity 139

Summary 141

Appendix: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate under

the Flexible-Price Monetary Approach 146

Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run 149

Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy 150

Determinants of Consumption Demand 150

Determinants of the Current Account 151

How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account 152

How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account 153

The Equation of Aggregate Demand 153

The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand 153

Real Income and Aggregate Demand 154

How Output Is Determined in the Short Run 155

Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule 156

Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium 156

Deriving the DD Schedule 157

Factors that Shift the DD Schedule 157

Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule 160

Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium 161

Deriving the AA Schedule 162

Factors that Shift the AA Schedule 163

Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting the DD and AA

Schedules Together 164

Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy 166

Monetary Policy 166

Fiscal Policy 167

Policies to Maintain Full Employment 168

Inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation 169

Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy 170

A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply 171

Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply 172

A Permanent Fiscal Expansion 173

Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account 175

Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current Account Dynamics 176

The J-Curve 176

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation 178

The Current Account, Wealth, and Exchange Rate Dynamics 179

The Liquidity Trap 179

case study: How Big Is the Government Spending Multiplier? 182

Summary 183

Appendix 1: Intertemporal Trade and Consumption Demand 188

Appendix 2: The Marshall-Lerner Condition and Empirical Estimates

of Trade Elasticities 190

Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange

Intervention 193

Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates? 194

Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply 195

The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply 195

Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply 197

Sterilization 198

The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply 198

How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate 199

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate 200

Money Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate 200

A Diagrammatic Analysis 201

Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate 202

Monetary Policy 203

Fiscal Policy 204

Changes in the Exchange Rate 205

Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes 206

Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight 207

Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention 210

Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention 210

case study: Can Markets Attack a Strong Currency? The Case of Switzerland 211

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under Imperfect Asset Substitutability 213

The Effects of Sterilized Intervention with Imperfect Asset Substitutability 213

Evidence on the Effects of Sterilized Intervention 215

Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System 216

The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard 216

The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center 217

The Gold Standard 218

The Mechanics of a Gold Standard 218

Symmetric Monetary Adjustment under a Gold Standard 218

Benefits and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard 219

The Bimetallic Standard 220

The Gold Exchange Standard 220

case study: The Demand for International Reserves 221

Summary 225

Appendix 1: Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market with Imperfect

Asset Substitutability 230

Demand 230

Supply 231

Equilibrium 231

Appendix 2: The Timing of Balance of Payments Crises 233

Part 2   International Macroeconomic Policy 236

International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview 236

Macroeconomic Policy Goals in an Open Economy 237

Internal Balance: Full Employment and Price Level Stability 238

External Balance: The Optimal Level of the Current Account 239

box: Can a Country Borrow Forever? The Case of New Zealand 241

Classifying Monetary Systems: The Open-Economy Monetary Trilemma 245

International Macroeconomic Policy under the Gold Standard, 1870–1914 246

Origins of the Gold Standard 246

External Balance under the Gold Standard 247

The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism 247

The Gold Standard “Rules of the Game”: Myth and Reality 248

Internal Balance under the Gold Standard 249

case study: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: Conflict

over America’s Monetary Standard during the 1890s 250

The Interwar Years, 1918–1939 251

The Fleeting Return to Gold 251

International Economic Disintegration 252

case study: The International Gold Standard and the Great Depression 253

The Bretton Woods System and the International Monetary Fund 254

Goals and Structure of the IMF 255

Convertibility and the Expansion of Private Financial Flows 256

Speculative Capital Flows and Crises 257

Analyzing Policy Options for Reaching Internal and External Balance 258

Maintaining Internal Balance 258

Maintaining External Balance 260

Expenditure-Changing and Expenditure-Switching Policies 260

The External Balance Problem of the United States under Bretton Woods 262

case study: The End of Bretton Woods, Worldwide Inflation, and

the Transition to Floating Rates 263

The Mechanics of Imported Inflation 264

Assessment 265

The Case for Floating Exchange Rates 266

Monetary Policy Autonomy 266

Symmetry 267

Exchange Rates as Automatic Stabilizers 268

Exchange Rates and External Balance 270

case study: The First Years of Floating Rates, 1973–1990 270

Macroeconomic Interdependence under a Floating Rate 274

case study: Transformation and Crisis in the World Economy 275

What Has Been Learned since 1973? 281

Monetary Policy Autonomy 281

Symmetry 282

The Exchange Rate as an Automatic Stabilizer 283

External Balance 283

The Problem of Policy Coordination 284

Are Fixed Exchange Rates Even an Option for Most Countries? 284

Summary 285

Appendix: International Policy Coordination Failures 292

Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis 295

The International Capital Market and the Gains from Trade 296

Three Types of Gain from Trade 296

Risk Aversion 298

Portfolio Diversification as a Motive for International Asset Trade 298

The Menu of International Assets: Debt versus Equity 299

International Banking and the International Capital Market 300

The Structure of the International Capital Market 300

Offshore Banking and Offshore Currency Trading 301

The Shadow Banking System 303

Banking and Financial Fragility 303

The Problem of Bank Failure 303

Government Safeguards against Financial Instability 306

Moral Hazard and the Problem of “Too Big to Fail” 308

box: The Simple Algebra of Moral Hazard 309

The Challenge of Regulating International Banking 310

The Financial Trilemma 310

International Regulatory Cooperation through 2007 312

case study: The Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 313

box: Foreign Exchange Instability and Central Bank Swap Lines 316

International Regulatory Initiatives after the Global Financial Crisis 318

How Well Have International Financial Markets Allocated Capital and Risk? 320

The Extent of International Portfolio Diversification 320

The Extent of Intertemporal Trade 322

Onshore-Offshore Interest Differentials 323

The Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market 323

Summary 327

Optimum Currency Areas and the Euro 332

How the European Single Currency Evolved 334

What Has Driven European Monetary Cooperation? 334

The European Monetary System, 1979–1998 335

German Monetary Dominance and the Credibility Theory of the EMS 336

Market Integration Initiatives 337

European Economic and Monetary Union 338

The Euro and Economic Policy in the Euro Zone 339

The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact 339

The European Central Bank and the Eurosystem 340

The Revised Exchange Rate Mechanism 341

The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas 341

Economic Integration and the Benefits of a Fixed Exchange

Rate Area: The GG Schedule 342

Economic Integration and the Costs of a Fixed Exchange

Rate Area: The LL Schedule 344

The Decision to Join a Currency Area: Putting the GG and LL Schedules

Together 346

What Is an Optimum Currency Area? 348

Other Important Considerations 348

case study: Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? 349

The Euro Crisis and the Future of EMU 353

Origins of the Crisis 353

Self-Fulfilling Government Default and the “Doom Loop” 358

A Broader Crisis and Policy Responses 360

ECB Outright Monetary Transactions 361

The Future of EMU 362

Summary 363

Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform 368

Income, Wealth, and Growth in the World Economy 369

The Gap between Rich and Poor 369

Has the World Income Gap Narrowed Over Time? 370

Structural Features of Developing Countries 372

Developing-Country Borrowing and Debt 375

The Economics of Financial Inflows to Developing Countries 375

The Problem of Default 377

Alternative Forms of Financial Inflow 379

The Problem of “Original Sin” 380

The Debt Crisis of the 1980s 382

Reforms, Capital Inflows, and the Return of Crisis 383

East Asia: Success and Crisis 386

The East Asian Economic Miracle 386

box: Why Have Developing Countries Accumulated Such High Levels

of International Reserves? 387

Asian Weaknesses 389

box: What Did East Asia Do Right? 390

The Asian Financial Crisis 391

Lessons of Developing-Country Crises 392

Reforming the World’s Financial “Architecture” 394

Capital Mobility and the Trilemma of the Exchange Rate Regime 395

“Prophylactic” Measures 396

Coping with Crisis 397

case study: China’s Pegged Currency 398

Understanding Global Capital Flows and the Global Distribution of Income:

Is Geography Destiny? 401

box: Capital Paradoxes 402

Summary 406

Mathematical Postscripts 411

Postscript to Chapter 9: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversification 411

An Analytical Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio 411

A Diagrammatic Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio 412

The Effects of Changing Rates of Return 414

ONLINE APPENDICES (www.pearsonhighered.com/krugman)

Appendix A to Chapter 17 in International Economics (Chapter 6 in International Finance): The IS-LM Model and the DD-AA  Model

Appendix A to Chapter 18 in International Economics (Chapter 7 in International Finance): The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments
内容简介:
《国际经济学：理论与政策》的三位作者都是著名的经济学家。本书是美国许多知名大学的*教材，它深刻洞悉了国际贸易和国际金融领域的*变化和争议，在内容安排上既包含国际经济学的*进展，又重视长期以来作为学科核心的传统理论与见解。本书配有大量的案例、专栏和图表，注重理论在实践中的应用。作者以其多年来对国际经济学的研究和实践经验，系统介绍了国际贸易理论和政策、国际收支平衡、汇率决定和国际宏观经济政策的*研究成果，是一本不可多得的国际经济学教材。
作者简介:
普林斯顿大学教授，2008年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者，目前还担任许多国家和地区的经济政策咨询顾问。他的主要研究领域包括国际贸易、国际金融、货币危机与汇率变化理论，被誉为当今世界上最令人瞩目的贸易理论家之一。
目录:
Preface xv

Introduction 1

What Is International Economics About? 3

The Gains from Trade 4

The Pattern of Trade 5

How Much Trade? 5

Balance of Payments 6

Exchange Rate Determination 6

International Policy Coordination 7

The International Capital Market 8

International Economics: Trade and Money 8

Part  1 Exchange rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics 11

National Income Accounting and the Balance

of Payments 11

The National Income Accounts 13

National Product and National Income 14

Capital Depreciation and International Transfers 15

Gross Domestic Product 15

National Income Accounting for an Open Economy 16

Consumption 16

Investment 16

Government Purchases 17

The National Income Identity for an Open Economy 17

An Imaginary Open Economy 18

The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness 18

Saving and the Current Account 21

Private and Government Saving 22

box: The Mystery of the Missing Deficit 23

The Balance of Payments Accounts 24

Examples of Paired Transactions 25

The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity 27

The Current Account, Once Again 27

The Capital Account 28

The Financial Account 29

Net Errors and Omissions 30

Official Reserve Transactions 30

case study: The Assets and Liabilities of the World’s Biggest Debtor 32

Summary 35

Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market:

An Asset Approach 40

Exchange Rates and International Transactions 41

Domestic and Foreign Prices 42

Exchange Rates and Relative Prices 43

The Foreign Exchange Market 44

The Actors 44

box: Exchange Rates, Auto Prices, and Currency Wars 45

Characteristics of the Market 46

Spot Rates and Forward Rates 48

Foreign Exchange Swaps 49

Futures and Options 49

The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets 50

Assets and Asset Returns 50

box: Nondeliverable Forward Exchange Trading in Asia 51

Risk and Liquidity 53

Interest Rates 54

Exchange Rates and Asset Returns 55

A Simple Rule 56

Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market 58

Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market 59

Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition 59

How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect

Expected Returns 60

The Equilibrium Exchange Rate 61

Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium 64

The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate 64

The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate 65

case study: What Explains the Carry Trade? 66

Summary 68

Appendix: Forward Exchange Rates and Covered Interest Parity 74

Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates 77

Money Defined: A Brief Review 78

Money as a Medium of Exchange 78

Money as a Unit of Account 78

Money as a Store of Value 79

What Is Money? 79

How the Money Supply Is Determined 79

The Demand for Money by Individuals 80

Expected Return 80

Risk 81

Liquidity 81

Aggregate Money Demand 81

The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money Supply

and Demand 83

Equilibrium in the Money Market 83

Interest Rates and the Money Supply 85

Output and the Interest Rate 86

The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run 87

Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate 87

U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate 89

Europe’s Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate 90

Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run 92

Money and Money Prices 92

The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes 93

Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels 94

Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run 95

Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics 96

Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility 96

box: Money Supply Growth and Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe 98

Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate 99

Exchange Rate Overshooting 101

case study: Can Higher Inflation Lead to Currency Appreciation? The Implications

of Inflation Targeting 103

Summary 106

Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run 111

The Law of One Price 112

Purchasing Power Parity 113

The Relationship between PPP and the Law of One Price 113

Absolute PPP and Relative PPP 114

A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP 115

The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach 115

Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPP 117

The Fisher Effect 118

Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price 121

Explaining the Problems with PPP 123

Trade Barriers and Nontradables 123

Departures from Free Competition 124

Differences in Consumption Patterns and Price Level Measurement 125

box: Some Meaty Evidence on the Law of One Price 125

PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run 128

case study: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries 129

Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange

Rates 130

The Real Exchange Rate 131

Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate 133

box: Sticky Prices and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Scandinavian

Duty-Free Shops 133

Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium 136

International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate 138

Real Interest Parity 139

Summary 141

Appendix: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate under

the Flexible-Price Monetary Approach 146

Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run 149

Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy 150

Determinants of Consumption Demand 150

Determinants of the Current Account 151

How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account 152

How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account 153

The Equation of Aggregate Demand 153

The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand 153

Real Income and Aggregate Demand 154

How Output Is Determined in the Short Run 155

Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule 156

Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium 156

Deriving the DD Schedule 157

Factors that Shift the DD Schedule 157

Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule 160

Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium 161

Deriving the AA Schedule 162

Factors that Shift the AA Schedule 163

Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting the DD and AA

Schedules Together 164

Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy 166

Monetary Policy 166

Fiscal Policy 167

Policies to Maintain Full Employment 168

Inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation 169

Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy 170

A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply 171

Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply 172

A Permanent Fiscal Expansion 173

Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account 175

Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current Account Dynamics 176

The J-Curve 176

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation 178

The Current Account, Wealth, and Exchange Rate Dynamics 179

The Liquidity Trap 179

case study: How Big Is the Government Spending Multiplier? 182

Summary 183

Appendix 1: Intertemporal Trade and Consumption Demand 188

Appendix 2: The Marshall-Lerner Condition and Empirical Estimates

of Trade Elasticities 190

Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange

Intervention 193

Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates? 194

Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply 195

The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply 195

Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply 197

Sterilization 198

The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply 198

How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate 199

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate 200

Money Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate 200

A Diagrammatic Analysis 201

Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate 202

Monetary Policy 203

Fiscal Policy 204

Changes in the Exchange Rate 205

Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes 206

Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight 207

Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention 210

Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention 210

case study: Can Markets Attack a Strong Currency? The Case of Switzerland 211

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under Imperfect Asset Substitutability 213

The Effects of Sterilized Intervention with Imperfect Asset Substitutability 213

Evidence on the Effects of Sterilized Intervention 215

Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System 216

The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard 216

The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center 217

The Gold Standard 218

The Mechanics of a Gold Standard 218

Symmetric Monetary Adjustment under a Gold Standard 218

Benefits and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard 219

The Bimetallic Standard 220

The Gold Exchange Standard 220

case study: The Demand for International Reserves 221

Summary 225

Appendix 1: Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market with Imperfect

Asset Substitutability 230

Demand 230

Supply 231

Equilibrium 231

Appendix 2: The Timing of Balance of Payments Crises 233

Part 2   International Macroeconomic Policy 236

International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview 236

Macroeconomic Policy Goals in an Open Economy 237

Internal Balance: Full Employment and Price Level Stability 238

External Balance: The Optimal Level of the Current Account 239

box: Can a Country Borrow Forever? The Case of New Zealand 241

Classifying Monetary Systems: The Open-Economy Monetary Trilemma 245

International Macroeconomic Policy under the Gold Standard, 1870–1914 246

Origins of the Gold Standard 246

External Balance under the Gold Standard 247

The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism 247

The Gold Standard “Rules of the Game”: Myth and Reality 248

Internal Balance under the Gold Standard 249

case study: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: Conflict

over America’s Monetary Standard during the 1890s 250

The Interwar Years, 1918–1939 251

The Fleeting Return to Gold 251

International Economic Disintegration 252

case study: The International Gold Standard and the Great Depression 253

The Bretton Woods System and the International Monetary Fund 254

Goals and Structure of the IMF 255

Convertibility and the Expansion of Private Financial Flows 256

Speculative Capital Flows and Crises 257

Analyzing Policy Options for Reaching Internal and External Balance 258

Maintaining Internal Balance 258

Maintaining External Balance 260

Expenditure-Changing and Expenditure-Switching Policies 260

The External Balance Problem of the United States under Bretton Woods 262

case study: The End of Bretton Woods, Worldwide Inflation, and

the Transition to Floating Rates 263

The Mechanics of Imported Inflation 264

Assessment 265

The Case for Floating Exchange Rates 266

Monetary Policy Autonomy 266

Symmetry 267

Exchange Rates as Automatic Stabilizers 268

Exchange Rates and External Balance 270

case study: The First Years of Floating Rates, 1973–1990 270

Macroeconomic Interdependence under a Floating Rate 274

case study: Transformation and Crisis in the World Economy 275

What Has Been Learned since 1973? 281

Monetary Policy Autonomy 281

Symmetry 282

The Exchange Rate as an Automatic Stabilizer 283

External Balance 283

The Problem of Policy Coordination 284

Are Fixed Exchange Rates Even an Option for Most Countries? 284

Summary 285

Appendix: International Policy Coordination Failures 292

Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis 295

The International Capital Market and the Gains from Trade 296

Three Types of Gain from Trade 296

Risk Aversion 298

Portfolio Diversification as a Motive for International Asset Trade 298

The Menu of International Assets: Debt versus Equity 299

International Banking and the International Capital Market 300

The Structure of the International Capital Market 300

Offshore Banking and Offshore Currency Trading 301

The Shadow Banking System 303

Banking and Financial Fragility 303

The Problem of Bank Failure 303

Government Safeguards against Financial Instability 306

Moral Hazard and the Problem of “Too Big to Fail” 308

box: The Simple Algebra of Moral Hazard 309

The Challenge of Regulating International Banking 310

The Financial Trilemma 310

International Regulatory Cooperation through 2007 312

case study: The Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 313

box: Foreign Exchange Instability and Central Bank Swap Lines 316

International Regulatory Initiatives after the Global Financial Crisis 318

How Well Have International Financial Markets Allocated Capital and Risk? 320

The Extent of International Portfolio Diversification 320

The Extent of Intertemporal Trade 322

Onshore-Offshore Interest Differentials 323

The Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market 323

Summary 327

Optimum Currency Areas and the Euro 332

How the European Single Currency Evolved 334

What Has Driven European Monetary Cooperation? 334

The European Monetary System, 1979–1998 335

German Monetary Dominance and the Credibility Theory of the EMS 336

Market Integration Initiatives 337

European Economic and Monetary Union 338

The Euro and Economic Policy in the Euro Zone 339

The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact 339

The European Central Bank and the Eurosystem 340

The Revised Exchange Rate Mechanism 341

The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas 341

Economic Integration and the Benefits of a Fixed Exchange

Rate Area: The GG Schedule 342

Economic Integration and the Costs of a Fixed Exchange

Rate Area: The LL Schedule 344

The Decision to Join a Currency Area: Putting the GG and LL Schedules

Together 346

What Is an Optimum Currency Area? 348

Other Important Considerations 348

case study: Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? 349

The Euro Crisis and the Future of EMU 353

Origins of the Crisis 353

Self-Fulfilling Government Default and the “Doom Loop” 358

A Broader Crisis and Policy Responses 360

ECB Outright Monetary Transactions 361

The Future of EMU 362

Summary 363

Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform 368

Income, Wealth, and Growth in the World Economy 369

The Gap between Rich and Poor 369

Has the World Income Gap Narrowed Over Time? 370

Structural Features of Developing Countries 372

Developing-Country Borrowing and Debt 375

The Economics of Financial Inflows to Developing Countries 375

The Problem of Default 377

Alternative Forms of Financial Inflow 379

The Problem of “Original Sin” 380

The Debt Crisis of the 1980s 382

Reforms, Capital Inflows, and the Return of Crisis 383

East Asia: Success and Crisis 386

The East Asian Economic Miracle 386

box: Why Have Developing Countries Accumulated Such High Levels

of International Reserves? 387

Asian Weaknesses 389

box: What Did East Asia Do Right? 390

The Asian Financial Crisis 391

Lessons of Developing-Country Crises 392

Reforming the World’s Financial “Architecture” 394

Capital Mobility and the Trilemma of the Exchange Rate Regime 395

“Prophylactic” Measures 396

Coping with Crisis 397

case study: China’s Pegged Currency 398

Understanding Global Capital Flows and the Global Distribution of Income:

Is Geography Destiny? 401

box: Capital Paradoxes 402

Summary 406

Mathematical Postscripts 411

Postscript to Chapter 9: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversification 411

An Analytical Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio 411

A Diagrammatic Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio 412

The Effects of Changing Rates of Return 414

ONLINE APPENDICES (www.pearsonhighered.com/krugman)

Appendix A to Chapter 17 in International Economics (Chapter 6 in International Finance): The IS-LM Model and the DD-AA  Model

Appendix A to Chapter 18 in International Economics (Chapter 7 in International Finance): The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments

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国际经济学：理论与政策（国际金融）（全球版 第10版）

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国际经济学：理论与政策（国际金融）（全球版第10版）