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The Black Swan[黑天鹅:如何应对不可预知的未来]

作者: Nassim Nicholas Taleb （纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布）著

出版社: Random House US

出版时间: 2007-04

版次: 1

ISBN: 9780812979183

定价: 124.70

装帧: 平装

开本: 32开

纸张: 胶版纸

页数: 366页

正文语种: 英语

分类: 外文古旧书>英文书>小说

11人买过

In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. Nassim Nicholas Talebis a Lebanese American essayist whose work focuses on problems of randomness and probability. His 2007 book The Black Swan was described in a review by Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.

He is a bestselling author and has been a professor at several universities, currently at Polytechnic Institute of New York University and Oxford University. He is also a practitioner of mathematical finance. Taleb has been a hedge fund manager, a Wall Street trader, and is currently a scientific adviser at Universa Investments and the International Monetary Fund.

He criticized the risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises, subsequently making a fortune out of the late-2000s financial crisis. He advocates what he calls a "black swan robust" society, meaning a society that can withstand difficult-to-predict events. He favors "stochastic tinkering" as a method of scientific discovery, by which he means experimentation and fact-collecting instead of top-down directed research. Prologue

  On the Plumage of Birds

    What You Do Not Know

    Experts and "Empty Suits"

    Learning to Learn

  A New Kind of Ingratitude

  Life Is Very Unusual

  Plato and the Nerd

  Too Dull to Write About

  The Bottom Line

    Chapters Map

PART ONE: UMBERTO ECO'S ANTiLIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION

  Chapter I : The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic

    Anatomy of a Black Swan

      On Walking Walks

      "Paradise" Evaporated

      Tbe Starred Night

    History and the Triplet of Opacity

      Nobody Knows What's Going On

      History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps

        Dear Diary: On History Running Backward

        Education in a Taxicab

    Clusters

        Where Is the Show?

    83/4 Lbs Later

        The Four-Letter Word of Independence

        Limousine Philosopher

  Chapter 2: Yevgenla's Black Swan

  Chapter 3: The Speculator and the Prostitute

    The Best (Worst) Advice

    Beware the Scalable

      The Advent of Scalability

    Scalability and Globalization

    Travels Inside Mediocristan

      The Strange Country of Extremistan

      Extremistan and Knowledge

      Wild and Mild

      The Tyranny of the Accident

  Chapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker

    How to Learn from the Turkey

      Trained to Be Dull

      A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge

    A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem

      Sextus the (Alas) Empirical

      Algazel

      The Skeptic, Friend of Religion

      I Don't Want to Be a Turkey

      They Want to Live in Mediocristan

  Chapter 5: Confirmation Shmonfirmation~

      Zoogles Are Not All Boogles

      Evidence

    Negative Empiricism

      Counting to Three

      Saw Another Red Mini!

……

PART TWO:WE JUST CANT PREDICT

PARTTHREE:THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

PART FOUR:THE END

Epilogue:Yevgenia s White Swans

Acknowledgments

Glossary

Notes

Bibliography

Index
内容简介:
In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.
作者简介:
Nassim Nicholas Talebis a Lebanese American essayist whose work focuses on problems of randomness and probability. His 2007 book The Black Swan was described in a review by Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.

He is a bestselling author and has been a professor at several universities, currently at Polytechnic Institute of New York University and Oxford University. He is also a practitioner of mathematical finance. Taleb has been a hedge fund manager, a Wall Street trader, and is currently a scientific adviser at Universa Investments and the International Monetary Fund.

He criticized the risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises, subsequently making a fortune out of the late-2000s financial crisis. He advocates what he calls a "black swan robust" society, meaning a society that can withstand difficult-to-predict events. He favors "stochastic tinkering" as a method of scientific discovery, by which he means experimentation and fact-collecting instead of top-down directed research.
目录:
Prologue

  On the Plumage of Birds

    What You Do Not Know

    Experts and "Empty Suits"

    Learning to Learn

  A New Kind of Ingratitude

  Life Is Very Unusual

  Plato and the Nerd

  Too Dull to Write About

  The Bottom Line

    Chapters Map

PART ONE: UMBERTO ECO'S ANTiLIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION

  Chapter I : The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic

    Anatomy of a Black Swan

      On Walking Walks

      "Paradise" Evaporated

      Tbe Starred Night

    History and the Triplet of Opacity

      Nobody Knows What's Going On

      History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps

        Dear Diary: On History Running Backward

        Education in a Taxicab

    Clusters

        Where Is the Show?

    83/4 Lbs Later

        The Four-Letter Word of Independence

        Limousine Philosopher

  Chapter 2: Yevgenla's Black Swan

  Chapter 3: The Speculator and the Prostitute

    The Best (Worst) Advice

    Beware the Scalable

      The Advent of Scalability

    Scalability and Globalization

    Travels Inside Mediocristan

      The Strange Country of Extremistan

      Extremistan and Knowledge

      Wild and Mild

      The Tyranny of the Accident

  Chapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker

    How to Learn from the Turkey

      Trained to Be Dull

      A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge

    A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem

      Sextus the (Alas) Empirical

      Algazel

      The Skeptic, Friend of Religion

      I Don't Want to Be a Turkey

      They Want to Live in Mediocristan

  Chapter 5: Confirmation Shmonfirmation~

      Zoogles Are Not All Boogles

      Evidence

    Negative Empiricism

      Counting to Three

      Saw Another Red Mini!

……

PART TWO:WE JUST CANT PREDICT

PARTTHREE:THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

PART FOUR:THE END

Epilogue:Yevgenia s White Swans

Acknowledgments

Glossary

Notes

Bibliography

Index

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The Black Swan[黑天鹅:如何应对不可预知的未来]

内容简介:

作者简介:

目录: