Fooled by Randomness:The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Fooled by Randomness:The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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出版社: Random House US
2005-08
版次: 1
ISBN: 9780812975215
装帧: 平装
开本: 32开
纸张: 胶版纸
页数: 316页
  •   “[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [FooledBy Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximatelywhat Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the CatholicChurch.”

      –Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

      Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that willchange the way you think about the markets and the world.This bookis about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personaland professional experiences.

      Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in whichluck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled byRandomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, andendlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understoodforces in all of our lives.   Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC,a crisis-hunting hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the CourantInstitute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He hasheld a variety of derivative trading positions in New York andLondon and worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Talebwas inducted in February 2001 in the Derivatives Strategy Hall ofFame.

      Taleb received an M.B.A. from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. fromthe University of Paris Dauphine. He is the author of DynamicHedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options (Wiley, 1997). Pt. I Solon's warning

    1 If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart?

    2 A bizarre accounting method

    3 A mathematical meditation on history

    4 Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual

    5 Survival of the least fit - can evolution be fooled byrandomness?

    6 Skewness and asymmetry

    7 The problem of induction

    Pt. II Monkeys on typewriters

    8 Too many millionaires next door

    9 It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg

    10 Loser takes all - on the nonlinearities of life

    11 Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind

    Pt. III Wax in my ears

    12 Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box

    13 Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism

    14 Bacchus abandons antony

    Epilogue : Solon told you

    Postscript : three afterthoughts in the shower
  • 内容简介:
      “[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [FooledBy Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximatelywhat Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the CatholicChurch.”

      –Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker

      Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that willchange the way you think about the markets and the world.This bookis about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personaland professional experiences.

      Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in whichluck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled byRandomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, andendlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understoodforces in all of our lives.
  • 作者简介:
      Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC,a crisis-hunting hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the CourantInstitute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He hasheld a variety of derivative trading positions in New York andLondon and worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Talebwas inducted in February 2001 in the Derivatives Strategy Hall ofFame.

      Taleb received an M.B.A. from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. fromthe University of Paris Dauphine. He is the author of DynamicHedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options (Wiley, 1997).
  • 目录:
    Pt. I Solon's warning

    1 If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart?

    2 A bizarre accounting method

    3 A mathematical meditation on history

    4 Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual

    5 Survival of the least fit - can evolution be fooled byrandomness?

    6 Skewness and asymmetry

    7 The problem of induction

    Pt. II Monkeys on typewriters

    8 Too many millionaires next door

    9 It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg

    10 Loser takes all - on the nonlinearities of life

    11 Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind

    Pt. III Wax in my ears

    12 Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box

    13 Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism

    14 Bacchus abandons antony

    Epilogue : Solon told you

    Postscript : three afterthoughts in the shower
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