Fooled by Randomness:The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Fooled by Randomness:The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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作者:
出版社: Penguin
2007-05
版次: 1
ISBN: 9780141031484
定价: 90.00
装帧: 平装
开本: 16开
纸张: 胶版纸
页数: 368页
正文语种: 英语
  • Everyonewantstosucceedinlife.Butwhatcausessomeofustobemoresuccessfulthanothers?Isitreallydowntoskillandstrategy-orsomethingaltogethermoreunpredictable?Thisbookistheword-of-mouthsensationthatwillchangethewayyouthinkaboutbusinessandtheworld.Itisallaboutluck:moreprecisely,howweperceiveluckinourpersonalandprofessionalexperiences.Nowhereisthismoreobviousthaninthemarkets-wehearanentrepreneurhas'vision'oratraderis'talented',butalltoooftentheirperformanceisdowntochanceratherthanskill.Itisonlybecausewefailtounderstandprobabilitythatwecontinuetobelieveeventsarenon-random,findingreasonswherenoneexist.Thisirreverentbestsellerhasshatteredtheillusionsofpeoplearoundtheworldbyteachingthemhowtorecognizerandomness.Nowitcandothesameforyou. NassimNicholasTalebspendsmostofhistimeasaflaneur,meditatingincafesacrosstheplanet.Aformertrader,heiscurrentlyDistinguishedProfessorofRiskEngineeringatNewYorkUniversity.HisbooksFooledbyRandomnessandTheBlackSwanhavebeenpublishedinthirty-onelanguages. Pt. I Solon's warning
    1 If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? 5
    2 A bizarre accounting method 22
    3 A mathematical meditation on history 43
    4 Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual 70
    5 Survival of the least fit - can evolution be fooled by randomness? 79
    6 Skewness and asymmetry 97
    7 The problem of induction 116
    Pt. II Monkeys on typewriters
    8 Too many millionaires next door 139
    9 It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg 149
    10 Loser takes all - on the nonlinearities of life 172
    11 Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind 182
    Pt. III Wax in my ears
    12 Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box 226
    13 Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism 234
    14 Bacchus abandons antony 245
    Epilogue : Solon told you so 250
    Postscript : three afterthoughts in the shower 253
  • 内容简介:
    Everyonewantstosucceedinlife.Butwhatcausessomeofustobemoresuccessfulthanothers?Isitreallydowntoskillandstrategy-orsomethingaltogethermoreunpredictable?Thisbookistheword-of-mouthsensationthatwillchangethewayyouthinkaboutbusinessandtheworld.Itisallaboutluck:moreprecisely,howweperceiveluckinourpersonalandprofessionalexperiences.Nowhereisthismoreobviousthaninthemarkets-wehearanentrepreneurhas'vision'oratraderis'talented',butalltoooftentheirperformanceisdowntochanceratherthanskill.Itisonlybecausewefailtounderstandprobabilitythatwecontinuetobelieveeventsarenon-random,findingreasonswherenoneexist.Thisirreverentbestsellerhasshatteredtheillusionsofpeoplearoundtheworldbyteachingthemhowtorecognizerandomness.Nowitcandothesameforyou.
  • 作者简介:
    NassimNicholasTalebspendsmostofhistimeasaflaneur,meditatingincafesacrosstheplanet.Aformertrader,heiscurrentlyDistinguishedProfessorofRiskEngineeringatNewYorkUniversity.HisbooksFooledbyRandomnessandTheBlackSwanhavebeenpublishedinthirty-onelanguages.
  • 目录:
    Pt. I Solon's warning
    1 If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? 5
    2 A bizarre accounting method 22
    3 A mathematical meditation on history 43
    4 Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual 70
    5 Survival of the least fit - can evolution be fooled by randomness? 79
    6 Skewness and asymmetry 97
    7 The problem of induction 116
    Pt. II Monkeys on typewriters
    8 Too many millionaires next door 139
    9 It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg 149
    10 Loser takes all - on the nonlinearities of life 172
    11 Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind 182
    Pt. III Wax in my ears
    12 Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box 226
    13 Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism 234
    14 Bacchus abandons antony 245
    Epilogue : Solon told you so 250
    Postscript : three afterthoughts in the shower 253
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